So Labour leader Ed Miliband has ruled out a referendum on EU membership…or has he?
As ever, it is not the end of the matter.
Some conservative commentators have, predictably, described the move as an ‘unforced error’ and ‘priceless gift’ to David Cameron. Others, perhaps more accurately, say that it is a confusing fudge.
But in truth, it is sensible national politics. If Miliband were to match Cameron’s pledge a Labour government elected in 2015 would see its governing programme defined by a referendum it doesn’t support.
Businesses would be more reluctant to invest in a country that clearly had one foot out of the EU’s door. In fact, it was noteworthy that, following the speech, the British Chambers of Commerce stated that Miliband’s views “chime well with business thinking”.
As it is, Miliband has not ruled out an in/out referendum. He’s just kicked it into the long grass until there is a new EU treaty which transfers further powers to Brussels.
Former prime minister Harold McMillan famously described “events, dear boy, events” as the biggest risk facing a government. It’s never smart for politicians to follow the lead of other parties for the sake of expediency.
By committing himself to a renegotiation and deadline for a referendum in 2017, Cameron’s strategy remains very high risk. There are a number of ‘known unknowns’ that he will have little control over. Although a new EU treaty is likely before the end of the decade, there is currently little appetite among EU leaders to re-open the pandora’s box of treaty reform, and that is before you even get to whether they would be prepared to accommodate Britain’s demands.
Richard Corbett, who is bidding to return to the European Parliament in May after four years advising Herman van Rompuy, describes Cameron’s strategy it as a ‘double blackmail’ of the British public and the rest of Europe.
Labour is hoping that the public demand for an EU referendum fades away. Even now, no opinion poll put the EU among the top ten issues of most importance to voters. Instead, voters are, as usual, more exorcised about their jobs and economic prospects, welfare, schools and hospitals.
The first litmus test of Labour’s referendum policy will be May’s European elections. The referendum positions of the UK’s parties will probably be one of the few ‘EU-related’ parts of the campaign. But if Miliband’s referendum stance costs Labour much in the way of votes and seats, I’ll be amazed.